Italy vs England: who will get the trophy?
On July 11, Italy and England will decide a champion of Euro 2020. In our prediction we chose a favourite of that match and gave out some betting tips. Who will turn out to be stronger?
Italy national team skipped the 2018 World Cup and had some time for the rebuilding of the squad, Roberto Mancini did a great job with that. Squadra Azzurra approached the Euro 2020 with a 27-game unbeaten run - with a performance like that, it was not to consider Italy one of the main title contenders.
Italy confirmed that status in the group stage - two 3:0 wins over Turkey and Switzerland sealed a first place in the group and a play-off spot. In the last match of the group stage Italy also beat Wales by a 1:0 score and set a record of the European Championship - not a single team previously managed to secure three victories in the group, without conceding a goal.
But in the first match of the knock-out phase Italy was extremely close to elimination - they failed to score in the first 90 minutes of the match against Austria. Opponent, on the other hand, managed to score in the middle of the second half, almost shocking Italy's fans, but Austrians' joy didn't last long - Anthony Taylor disallowed this goal because of an offside. On extra-time Italy proved its class and secured a 2:1 victory, conceding first goal on the Euro 2020.
In the quarter-final Italy smashed Belgium in the first half - on the 44th minute Squadra Azzurra was 2:0 up and even scored the third goal, which was disallowed. Belgians managed to score a consolation goal, converting a controversial penalty. Leonardo Spinazzola got an injury in this game, which is a big loss for the Italian team.
In the semi-final, Italians tried to beat Spain in a regular time - in the beginning of the second half Federico Chiesa scored a goal and took the lead for Italy. Blues had a few other moments, but failed to close out the game, so eventually Alvaro Morata scored an equalizer. But he turned from hero to zero, where he failed to score a penalty kick in the post-match shootout, which guaranteed Italy a spot in the final.
England national team was also considered a favourite of the Euro 2020 before the start of the tournament, but the first of the group stage draw some questions to Gareth Southgate. Boring and a little too cautious performance against Croatia was disliked by the Three Lions' fans. But in that match they at least secured a 1:0 victory, while a goalless draw against Scotland draw another wave of criticism.
A 1:0 victory over Czech Republic in the last match of the group stage guaranteed a first spot to England and then they were drawn to play against Germany, who experienced some problems in the «group of death» - Germans recorded only one victory. In a difficult match England eventually found a goal, but the German team had some opportunities as well, but failed to deliver. Harry Kane's goal sealed a 2:0 victory for the Three Lions and they advanced into the quarter-final.
Match against Ukraine turned out to be pretty easy for the English side - tired and weakened opponents failed to put up a fight. In the first half England managed to score only one goal, but in the second one they found a net three times, securing a confident victory with a clean sheet, this match didn't took much energy.
In the semi-final Danes managed to break England's streak of clean sheet matches, scoring a goal from the free-kick in the first half. Englishmen levelled the score pretty easily, but then their opponent took a step back and made the match go to the extra time. That's where the drama started - Danny Makkelie gave a controversial penalty for the foul on Raheem Sterling.
Harry Kane failed to put the ball past Kasper Schmeichel from the first attempt, but did so on the follow-up. Denmark, down to 10 man (Mathias Jensen, who was substituted into the game, went off injured), failed to strike back and England got a spot in the final.
Last four head-to-head games ended with that score
In three out of last four matches against England Italy scored in the first half
In three out of last four matches England scored in the first half
Only once in last three Italy's matches this bet didn't win
Italy national team had a very difficult road to the final, they had to beat Belgium and Spain to get here. Squadra Azzurra should know how to play against England, their style of play is very similar to the Spanish one and Italians know how to handle this strategy.
Numbers are a great proof to that statement - Spain scored more goals than any other team on Euro 2020 (13), had an advantage in ball possession (66.8%), in shots taken (111). Despite all that, Italians managed to beat Furia Roja and could've secured a victory in a regular time. It is a very important experience and we think that it will help the Italians to win the trophy.
We believe that Italy will come out on top. Our prediction - Italy to go through
Prediction: Italy to go through
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Italy national team, just like the English team, is very solid on defense - opponents conceded only four goals combined. A mistake in the final costs too much, so teams are unlikely to open up since the first minutes. But game is unlikely to end in a goalless draw, both teams are very good on converting chances and are very dangerous on set-pieces, as we saw in the previous matches. A goal exchange is possible.
Our second bet is on both teams to score
If you want to take the risk, you can place a bet on Italy to win with a one goal margin